In his final fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses how close we are to a player strike, why supporters must be looked after, why AI is part of the future of the game, what we should expect from a football regulator – and more!
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We’re at a tipping point and I’d support an imminent player strike
As far as player welfare is concerned, I think there is a growing sentiment that strike action has been coming for a while.
Football on a global level, certainly the top of the game, has found itself in an extraordinary position post pandemic where it has become, and we’ve said this before, the repository of many of the world’s populations emotions in a bad time.
It’s where people go to be to let their emotions flow and attached to that of course are huge broadcast numbers, football influencer TV audiences that are topping out at over a quarter of a million hits a month and a global audience for the Premier League of over 2 billion every weekend – and then there’s this lovely little entity called money.
I think the people that run the game have been able to see an opportunity to capture this huge spending ability from global football fans, and so they put in more competitions, bigger broadcast rights, bigger sponsorship values and inherent in all of that is pushing players to play more games.
There comes a point when the human body can only take so much, even as wonderfully fit as these players are.
They’re monitored by medical attachments when they leave the training ground, people back at the clubs know what they’re eating and doing, and all the information seems to point to the fact that injuries are becoming more commonplace.
If a club has a player that’s earning in excess of £100,000 per week, they’ll want to get him back on the field as soon as possible, maybe a week too early, but playing those extra games is just not commensurate with the welfare of the players.
I think there comes a tipping point and it’s very close, and I think Rodri and his associates have got a very valid point. I would certainly support it.
A lot of this should be handled by organisations like FIFPro, because they supposedly have the players welfare at heart. There should be a coming together of minds for the well being of the players, so that they can play their very best.
Man City decision will help to evolve the future of the game
In no particular order, the things that are going to affect the game moving forward is the outcome of what happens in the Premier League case against Manchester City, and how the finances are managed when multinational and national countries are part of the ownerships.
I think that will dictate the immediate financial framework of our game because coming down the track are things such as AI, which we’ll talk about in a second.
I’ve said previously in this column, and it’s been proven now by the broadcasters, there are competitions that are superfluous. The World Club Championship. No one knows what it is, what it stands for, or why it’s there, other than to make more money for FIFA.
I think that it may well end up being some sort of “Super League” (though not to be called that) sponsored by one of the Gulf states or a combination of certain Gulf states. That will enable that competition to become a global club competition, with the status of what was originally intended to be The Super League.
Notwithstanding, that the new format of the Champions League, which, if you look at it, is kind of weighted in favour of the big clubs, has been designed especially to stymie a Super League rebirth.
I think it’s highly likely that the Champions League will evolve slightly differently from what it is now, but I think this is the basis of wanting to give the bigger clubs the chance of bigger income from bigger games in a change of format which, in fairness, had got a little bit stale.
English football regulator can’t be politicising the game
The finances in England will certainly dictate the shape of the top of our league, which is the Premier League.
However, the ongoing discussions with the Football League will be a bit convoluted because this government wants to put a regulator that will supersede the Football Association.
That’s possibly because the Football Association are a passenger on the train too much of the time, rather than driving it.
That’s not only in conflict with UEFA, as we’ve said before, but more importantly a regulator is in potential conflict with all other entities, because it’ll have a political agenda and that will be to look after the lesser clubs.
There’s nothing wrong with that, but there has to be a coming together of minds rather than the bullying of a regulator, because all it’ll do is end up in in courts of law and be put away for the next two or three years, and nobody gets anything at that point.
I there is a regulator, which there will be, it has to be a more empathetic one, rather than just a political voice piece.
AI in football is already a reality
What’s going to happen in football is AI. Yes really.
It’s really interesting and fascinating, and I’m already speaking to a lot of the clubs at senior levels about this.
Manchester City, for example, could set up Arsenal’s own tactical formation and run it through AI, where it will forecast what players will do in certain situations; ie if they go wide, if they go through the middle, if they play three across the middle, rather than four.
AI runs those sequences, and you end up with a number of different circumstances which will only get more and more intricate over the years begin and as AI becomes more intelligent.
It will have the predictability that the human mind probably can’t numerically rival. So in other words, you can come up with half a dozen plans in your head, but AI will come up with 35.
The opinion on AI is already very valued by clubs, so we’ve got a lot of tactical change coming. It’s one of the reasons why the whole data processing of players abilities has taken on a whole new shape, and also why clubs are going for younger coaches now at the top of the game; because they understand where it’s coming from whereas the older coaches don’t.
AI is going to be the next major discussion point in football but is there a management system that should be put in place for that? Big question, because it’s very difficult to manage.
Is it bad for the game? No. It can only, in my humble opinion, make the game more efficient in its tactical advantages and add another layer to the sport we love.
One would hope that the very wealthy owners won’t have much of an edge in future too, because although you can buy the best brains, best AI programmers etc., there’s not a lot of them.
You’re talking about a handful of people who are very bright, and that happens in every walk of life. I don’t see that as a particularly bad thing, although the game is a long way from the working man’s sport it once was.
Football supporters need to be looked after
In football there are wonderful people called supporters, and I do get a little worried that not only is there a lot of football for them, so they’re having to pay a lot of money in a time of financial depression, but that some of the facilities for supporters, such as catering, are outrageously expensive.
You’re paying £10 and more for a mass produced, relatively cheap hot dog, and I feel that I just would like football generally to be a little more user friendly to the supporters and to encourage the next generation of football fans to come through.
A lot of football supporters are nowhere near wealthy, and I think the fact that football is important to people now, it really is a significant part of their lives, we should be inherently caring about their mental well being and for the future generations of supporters.
Premier League is still No.1 but Trent should consider new experience
I don’t think the Premier League has lost its sheen at all. The more I travel around the world, the bigger and more appreciated our league is.
The more entertaining the games are, the more the pleasure it gives the world football community. I think the fact that the world has become a lot more global means that certain markets have opened up like never before; the Asian Football market, the USA… there’s so many good leagues but the Premier League stands on its own.
There are issues, not least of all the Financial Fair Play issue, which is impactful on the Premier League’s position, but that has nothing to do with a player’s opportunity to try a new experience elsewhere.
If you’re advising Trent Alexander-Arnold for example, he’s got one year left so he can either renew with Liverpool again or, at his age, he can go on an adventure.
Real Madrid, Roma, whomever… they’re iconic clubs and the game’s a little less demanding abroad. Moreover, it’s an interesting dimension for life. It gives players a wider mental and physical approach to life and the game of football.
Traditionally, it’s been all about ‘the English game’ but the English game is dominated by foreign players! The English game has become very multicultural and I think that lends itself to two way traffic and certain circumstances like Trent’s, which I think are very explainable.
As this is my last column with CaughtOffside, I just wanted to take the time to thank everyone who has read my musings over the past few years as it is very much appreciated. I would like to extend my thanks to everyone at CaughtOffside, particularly Will Muirhead and Jason Pettigrove. It’s been great fun and I’m sure paths will cross again as we go in different directions. I leave with only happy thoughts and positive sentiments towards football fans and the game in general. Thank you.
*Top photo by CaughtOffside